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Will a hurricane or tropical storm affect Texas?

Latest official NHC advisory: Thursday, October 15 at 10:00 PM CDT. We check every 10 minutes.

Tropical Storm Simon · Tropical storm

Simon would pass 805 miles from Brownsville; there are no official watches or warnings for Texas.

The center of Simon is now 805 miles away and the forecast takes it farther away.

What to do

Everything about Tropical Storm Simon

Hurricane Trudy · Category 2

Trudy would pass 665 miles from Brownsville; there are no official watches or warnings for Texas.

The center of Trudy would pass about 665 miles away around Sunday, Oct 18, 1 PM CDT, as a Category 2 hurricane (105 mph).

What to do

Everything about Hurricane Trudy

Monsoon troughTTT16 Fri, 1 PMDD17 Sat, 1 PMD18 Sun, 1 AMSimon12416 Fri, 1 PM4417 Sat, 1 PM3218 Sun, 1 PMTTTrudyBrownsvilleBrownsvilleSouth Padre IslandSouth Padre IslandCorpus ChristiCorpus ChristiPort AransasPort AransasRockportVictoriaFreeportGalvestonHoustonBeaumontPort ArthurPort ArthurSan AntonioSan Antonio77°82°77°82°
Storms and cities in Texas
Forecast cone: where the center could go Forecast track Track so far Tropical-storm-force winds now 31TDCategory (hurricane 1–5, T storm, D depression) Hurricane warningHurricane watch Tropical storm warningTropical storm watch
Intertropical Convergence Zone / monsoon trough (NHC)

Your city: how close Simon would pass

CityOfficial statusWould passWhen
BrownsvilleNo official watches or warnings805 minow (moving away)
South Padre IslandNo official watches or warnings830 minow (moving away)
Corpus ChristiNo official watches or warnings885 mi15 Thu, 2 PM
Port AransasNo official watches or warnings900 minow (moving away)
San AntonioNo official watches or warnings905 mi16 Fri, 1 AM
RockportNo official watches or warnings910 mi15 Thu, 1 PM
VictoriaNo official watches or warnings945 mi16 Fri, 1 AM
FreeportNo official watches or warnings1025 minow (moving away)
HoustonNo official watches or warnings1055 mi16 Fri, 1 AM
GalvestonNo official watches or warnings1065 minow (moving away)
BeaumontNo official watches or warnings1125 mi15 Thu, 4 PM
Port ArthurNo official watches or warnings1125 minow (moving away)

Distance between the city and the nearest point of the forecast track of the storm's center. Wind, rain and surf reach far beyond the center.

Weather in Texas now

National Hurricane Center analysis · 3 hours ago

  • Cold front: the NHC mentions a front over the Gulf.A cold front is the leading edge of colder, drier air: it brings a line of showers or storms, a wind shift and cooler temperatures.
  • Gale Warning at sea (official, NHC) over the Gulf.Gale Warning: winds of 39 to 54 mph over the water and rough seas. It is a marine warning; dangerous surf can reach the coast.
Full NHC discussion text

GALE WARNING: Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

GULF OF AMERICA: A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean extending through the Yucatan Channel is inducing scattered disorganized convection over much of the southern basin. Some thunderstorms are concentrated in the western Bay of Campeche, where a weak surface trough is present. Otherwise, modest subtropical ridging from high pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly moderate or weaker easterly winds through the basin, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue.

Source: Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) · (Pacific)

What is normal in October in Texas

changing season Usually one of the drier stretches of the year, but late-season hurricanes are still possible, especially in October.

We are in the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30).

El Niño is under way, and NOAA expects it to be strong (NOAA, October 8, 2026).

On the Gulf Coast it tends to bring a wetter, cooler and stormier winter. El Niño usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes (but not none: one landfall is enough).

These are general tendencies: every year is different, and your local forecast comes first.

Typical climate per NOAA and regional weather services. It describes the season, not the forecast for a given day.

Where will it rain most? Forecast by city

Total rain each day, in inches. Wettest cities first.

CityTomorrowSaturdaySunday
Galveston0.4300
Port Arthur0.1600
South Padre Island0.0800.08
Beaumont0.0800
Brownsville0.0400
Port Aransas0.0400
Freeport0.0400
Corpus Christi000
Rockport000
Victoria000
Houston000
San Antonio000

Automatic forecast from a computer model (MET Norway, data CC BY 4.0). Not an official alert: for watches and warnings, follow National Weather Service.

What do the inches mean?

As a rough guide: under a quarter inch in a day is light rain; 1 to 2 inches is a heavy downpour; more than 2 inches in a day is very heavy rain that can flood low-lying areas and roads.

Several rainy days in a row saturate the ground: even a modest storm can then cause flash flooding and rising rivers.

Official sources for Texas

Emergency: 911

Be prepared