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Tropical Storm Simon and South Padre Island: will it affect me?
Latest official NHC advisory: Thursday, October 15 at 10:00 PM CDT. We check every 10 minutes.
Tropical Storm Simon · Tropical storm
No official watches or warnings
- Official alert
- No watch or warning for this area
- Distance
- The center is 840 miles away and moving farther away
- Inside the cone
- No
What to do in South Padre Island
- There are no official watches or warnings for your area from this storm.
- Rain and surf can still reach far from the storm: follow your local National Weather Service office.
Hurricane Trudy · Category 2
No official watches or warnings
- Official alert
- No watch or warning for this area
- The center would pass
- 685 miles from South Padre Island
- When (approx.)
- Sunday, Oct 18, 7 PM CDT
- Strength at that time
- Category 2 Hurricane, winds of 100 mph
- Inside the cone
- No
- Distance now
- 875 miles
What to do in South Padre Island
- There are no official watches or warnings for your area from this storm.
- Rain and surf can still reach far from the storm: follow your local National Weather Service office.
Tropical Storm Simon forecast, step by step
| Date and time (CDT) | Strength | Max wind | Distance to South Padre Island |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now Thu, Oct 15, 7:00 PM | Tropical storm | 45 mph | 840 mi |
| Fri, Oct 16, 7:00 AM | Tropical storm | 40 mph | 850 mi |
| Fri, Oct 16, 7:00 PM | Tropical depression | 35 mph | 905 mi |
| Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 AM | Tropical depression | 30 mph | 985 mi |
| Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 PM | Tropical depression | 25 mph | 1065 mi |
Hazards on land (NHC)
- Rain: 1 to 2 inches across portions of the state of Baja California Sur. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in hilly terrain.
- Surf: the NHC warns of life-threatening surf and rip currents. Stay out of the water.
Full NHC text
RAINFALL: Through early Saturday, Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the state of Baja California Sur.
SURF: Swells generated by Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Official watches and warnings
No coastal watches or warnings are in effect for this storm.
Weather in South Padre Island now
National Hurricane Center analysis · 4 hours ago
- Cold front: the NHC mentions a front over the Gulf.A cold front is the leading edge of colder, drier air: it brings a line of showers or storms, a wind shift and cooler temperatures.
- Gale Warning at sea (official, NHC) over the Gulf.Gale Warning: winds of 39 to 54 mph over the water and rough seas. It is a marine warning; dangerous surf can reach the coast.
Full NHC discussion text
GALE WARNING: Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
GULF OF AMERICA: A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean extending through the Yucatan Channel is inducing scattered disorganized convection over much of the southern basin. Some thunderstorms are concentrated in the western Bay of Campeche, where a weak surface trough is present. Otherwise, modest subtropical ridging from high pressure NE of the region is leading to mainly moderate or weaker easterly winds through the basin, with slight to moderate seas.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late Sat morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Strong high pressure will follow the front promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue.
Rain forecast for South Padre Island · next days
Automatic forecast from a computer model (MET Norway, data CC BY 4.0). Not an official alert: for watches and warnings, follow National Weather Service.
What do the inches mean?
As a rough guide: under a quarter inch in a day is light rain; 1 to 2 inches is a heavy downpour; more than 2 inches in a day is very heavy rain that can flood low-lying areas and roads.
Several rainy days in a row saturate the ground: even a modest storm can then cause flash flooding and rising rivers.
What is normal in October in South Padre Island
changing season Usually one of the drier stretches of the year, but late-season hurricanes are still possible, especially in October.
We are in the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30).
El Niño is under way, and NOAA expects it to be strong (NOAA, October 8, 2026).
On the Gulf Coast it tends to bring a wetter, cooler and stormier winter. El Niño usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes (but not none: one landfall is enough).
These are general tendencies: every year is different, and your local forecast comes first.
Typical climate per NOAA and regional weather services. It describes the season, not the forecast for a given day.
Official sources for Texas
Emergency: 911