Hurricane Trudy and McAllen: will it affect me?
Latest official NHC advisory: Friday, October 16 at 7:00 PM CDT. We check every 10 minutes.
Hurricane Trudy · Category 1
No official watches or warnings
- Official alert
- No watch or warning for this area
- The center would pass
- 655 miles from McAllen
- When (approx.)
- Monday, Oct 19, 1 AM CDT
- Strength at that time
- Tropical Storm, winds of 70 mph
- Inside the cone
- No
- Distance now
- 825 miles
What to do in McAllen
- There are no official watches or warnings for your area from this storm.
- Rain and surf can still reach far from the storm: follow your local National Weather Service office.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Simon · Tropical depression
No official watches or warnings
- Official alert
- No watch or warning for this area
- Distance
- The center is 815 miles away and moving farther away
- Inside the cone
- No
What to do in McAllen
- There are no official watches or warnings for your area from this storm.
- Rain and surf can still reach far from the storm: follow your local National Weather Service office.
National Weather Service
Official Red Flag Warning in effect for McAllen.
What it means
- Red Flag Warning: critical fire weather. Avoid anything that can spark a fire outdoors and follow local burn bans.
Always follow your local National Weather Service office and local officials. Details below.
Official weather alerts for McAllen
Red Flag Warning until Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 AM CDT
Red Flag Warning issued October 16 at 5:51PM CDT until October 17 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Brownsville TX
Zapata; Jim Hogg; Brooks; Inland Kenedy; Starr; Southern Hidalgo; Inland Willacy; Inland Cameron; Northern Hidalgo
Full text from the National Weather Service
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE WILDFIRE THREAT... .A strong cold front will push south through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today, with a secondary surge of strong northerly winds arriving late this evening through late Saturday morning. Relative humidity values are expected to drop this afternoon with little to no recovery into Saturday morning. Any wildfire that can develop will behave dangerously with erratic growth and spread due to strong winds and lower humidity. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect. * WINDS...North 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 24 percent. * IMPACTS...Any fire that can develop will behave dangerously with erratic growth and spread.
Instructions: A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Official NWS page · NWS Brownsville TX
1 advisory or statement
Wind Advisory until Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 AM CDT
Wind Advisory issued October 16 at 5:49PM CDT until October 17 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Brownsville TX
Brooks; Inland Kenedy; Southern Hidalgo; Inland Willacy; Inland Cameron; Northern Hidalgo
Full text from the National Weather Service
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY
* WHAT...North winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. * WHERE...Brooks, Inland Kenedy, Southern Hidalgo, Inland Willacy, Inland Cameron and Northern Hidalgo Counties. * WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Saturday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
Instructions: Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
Official NWS page · NWS Brownsville TX
Storm Prediction Center · today's severe-storm outlook · issued 1 h ago
McAllen is outside today's thunderstorm and severe-storm areas.
Official SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (NOAA), valid until Sat, Oct 17, 7:00 AM CDT. It shows the chance of severe storms in the area, not a warning for your street. SPC outlook
U.S. Drought Monitor · map of October 13
78% of Texas is in drought, including 15% in extreme or exceptional drought.
Share of the state's area. Updated every Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor (National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA). Drought builds over weeks and months: one rainy day rarely ends it.
Hurricane Trudy forecast, step by step
| Date and time (CDT) | Strength | Max wind | Distance to McAllen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now Fri, Oct 16, 4:00 PM | Category 1 | 85 mph | 820 mi |
| Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 AM | Category 1 | 85 mph | 800 mi |
| Sat, Oct 17, 1:00 PM | Category 1 | 90 mph | 740 mi |
| Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 AM | Category 1 | 90 mph | 680 mi |
| Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM | Category 1 | 85 mph | 655 mi |
| Mon, Oct 19, 1:00 AM | Tropical storm | 70 mph | 650 mi |
| Mon, Oct 19, 1:00 PM | Tropical storm | 50 mph | 660 mi |
| Tue, Oct 20, 1:00 PM | Tropical depression | 35 mph | 695 mi |
| Wed, Oct 21, 1:00 PM | Tropical depression | 25 mph | 745 mi |
Hazards on land (NHC)
- Rain: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals up to 15 inches across Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in hilly terrain.
- Storm surge: the NHC warns of coastal flooding from rising water, with large and destructive waves near the coast.
- Surf: the NHC warns of life-threatening surf and rip currents. Stay out of the water.
Full NHC text
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions spreading across the area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by late tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by late Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Sunday.
RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 15 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Official watches and warnings
- Hurricane Warning
- The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes
Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area, usually within 36 hours.
- Hurricane Watch
- The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Punta San Telmo
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area; issued about 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected.
- Tropical Storm Warning
- The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo southward to Zihuatanejo
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within 36 hours.
- Tropical Storm Watch
- The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours.
Weather in McAllen now
National Hurricane Center analysis · 4 hours ago
- Cold front: the NHC mentions a front over the Gulf.A cold front is the leading edge of colder, drier air: it brings a line of showers or storms, a wind shift and cooler temperatures.
- Gale Warning at sea (official, NHC) over the Gulf.Gale Warning: winds of 39 to 54 mph over the water and rough seas. It is a marine warning; dangerous surf can reach the coast.
Full NHC discussion text
GALE WARNING: Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the far NW Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas follow the front, forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf likely through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.
GULF OF AMERICA: See details above about a Gulf of America Gale Warning.
An upper-level trough over the south-central US and a surface trough in the western Gulf are supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the interior Gulf. Another surface trough along the Mexican coast supports scattered moderate convection offshore Veracruz. A cold front has entered the far NW Gulf and extends from 30N93W to 26N97W. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas follow the front.
For the forecast, cold front is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will be just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate. Strong gale force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Frequent gusts to gale- force are forecast elsewhere NW of the front tonight into Sat morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the wake of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf likely through Tue.
Rain forecast for McAllen · next days
Automatic forecast from a computer model (MET Norway, data CC BY 4.0). Not an official alert: for watches and warnings, follow National Weather Service.
What do the inches mean?
As a rough guide: under a quarter inch in a day is light rain; 1 to 2 inches is a heavy downpour; more than 2 inches in a day is very heavy rain that can flood low-lying areas and roads.
Several rainy days in a row saturate the ground: even a modest storm can then cause flash flooding and rising rivers.
What is normal in October in McAllen
changing season Usually one of the drier stretches of the year, but late-season hurricanes are still possible, especially in October.
We are in the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30).
El Niño is under way, and NOAA expects it to be strong (NOAA, October 8, 2026).
On the Gulf Coast it tends to bring a wetter, cooler and stormier winter. El Niño usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes (but not none: one landfall is enough).
These are general tendencies: every year is different, and your local forecast comes first.
Typical climate per NOAA and regional weather services. It describes the season, not the forecast for a given day.
Official sources for Texas
Emergency: 911