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Will a hurricane or tropical storm affect Arizona?

Latest official NHC advisory: Thursday, October 15 at 8:00 PM MST. We check every 10 minutes.

Tropical Storm Simon · Tropical storm

Simon would pass 565 miles from Yuma; there are no official watches or warnings for Arizona.

The center of Simon would pass about 565 miles away around Saturday, Oct 17, 11 PM MST, as a tropical depression (25 mph).

What to do

Everything about Tropical Storm Simon

Hurricane Trudy · Category 2

Trudy would pass 825 miles from Tucson; there are no official watches or warnings for Arizona.

The center of Trudy would pass about 825 miles away around Tuesday, Oct 20, 11 AM MST, as a tropical storm (60 mph).

What to do

Everything about Hurricane Trudy

Monsoon troughTTT16 Fri, 11 AMDD17 Sat, 11 AMD17 Sat, 11 PMSimon12416 Fri, 11 AM4417 Sat, 11 AM3218 Sun, 11 AMTTTrudyYumaYumaPhoenixPhoenixTucsonTucsonFlagstaff82°82°
Storms and cities in Arizona
Forecast cone: where the center could go Forecast track Track so far Tropical-storm-force winds now 31TDCategory (hurricane 1–5, T storm, D depression) Hurricane warningHurricane watch Tropical storm warningTropical storm watch
Intertropical Convergence Zone / monsoon trough (NHC)

Your city: how close Simon would pass

CityOfficial statusWould passWhen
YumaNo official watches or warnings565 mi17 Sat, 11 PM
TucsonNo official watches or warnings585 mi17 Sat, 11 PM
PhoenixNo official watches or warnings640 mi17 Sat, 11 PM
FlagstaffNo official watches or warnings765 mi17 Sat, 11 PM

Distance between the city and the nearest point of the forecast track of the storm's center. Wind, rain and surf reach far beyond the center.

Weather in Arizona now

National Hurricane Center analysis · 3 hours ago

The latest NHC analysis shows no tropical waves, convergence zone or fronts near this area.

Full NHC discussion text

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO: Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon and Hurricane Trudy.

Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, strong N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are ongoing in the northern and central Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present offshore Baja California. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon is near 19.3N 108.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 1 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Simon will move to 19.8N 108.7W Fri morning, 20.8N 110.0W Fri afternoon, then weaken to a tropical depression near 22.0N 111.9W Sat morning. Simon will become a remnant low near 23.1N 113.6W Sat afternoon, move west of Baja California Sur Sun morning, then dissipate Sun afternoon. Hurricane Trudy is near 13.7N 101.7W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Trudy will move to 14.3N 101.9W Fri morning, and 15.2N 102.2W Fri afternoon. Hurricane Trudy will reach 16.3N 102.9W Sat morning, 17.5N 103.9W Sat afternoon, 18.8N 104.9W Sun morning, and 19.8N 105.8W Sun afternoon. Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm over west of Cabo Corrientes Mon afternoon. Gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may reach gale force this weekend has high pressure builds southward through Mexico in the wake of a cold front.

Source: Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) · (Pacific)

What is normal in October in Arizona

changing season Santa Ana winds and peak wildfire risk in Southern California; a late eastern Pacific storm can still send moisture north.

We are in the eastern Pacific hurricane season (May 15 to November 30).

El Niño is under way, and NOAA expects it to be strong (NOAA, October 8, 2026).

In California and the Southwest it tends to bring a wetter winter, with more flooding and mudslide risk. El Niño usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes (but not none: one landfall is enough).

These are general tendencies: every year is different, and your local forecast comes first.

Typical climate per NOAA and regional weather services. It describes the season, not the forecast for a given day.

Where will it rain most? Forecast by city

Total rain each day, in inches. Wettest cities first.

CityTomorrowSaturdaySunday
Phoenix00.040.04
Tucson00.040.04
Flagstaff00.040.28
Yuma000

Automatic forecast from a computer model (MET Norway, data CC BY 4.0). Not an official alert: for watches and warnings, follow National Weather Service.

What do the inches mean?

As a rough guide: under a quarter inch in a day is light rain; 1 to 2 inches is a heavy downpour; more than 2 inches in a day is very heavy rain that can flood low-lying areas and roads.

Several rainy days in a row saturate the ground: even a modest storm can then cause flash flooding and rising rivers.

Official sources for Arizona

Emergency: 911

Be prepared