How to read a hurricane forecast

The forecast cone

The cone shows where the center of the storm could go over the next 5 days. On average, the center stays inside the cone about two out of three times.

The cone is not the size of the storm. Damaging winds, rain and surf can reach hundreds of miles from the center, including outside the cone.

Watch and warning are not the same

Hurricane Watch Hurricane conditions are possible. Issued about 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected. Time to finish preparations.

Hurricane Warning Hurricane conditions are expected, usually within 36 hours. Time to follow official instructions and evacuate if told to.

Tropical Storm Watch and Tropical Storm Warning work the same way, for winds of 39 to 73 mph.

Storm Surge Warning There is a danger of life-threatening flooding from rising seawater moving inland. Storm surge is historically the deadliest hurricane hazard.

What "would pass X miles away" means

For each city we measure the distance between the city and the nearest point of the forecast track of the center, and when that would happen. It is a measurement on the official forecast, not our own prediction. A large distance does not mean you are safe: rain, surge and surf can reach far.

Forecasts change

The NHC issues a full advisory every 6 hours (with intermediate advisories when watches or warnings are in effect). Check several times a day: storms can turn or strengthen quickly.