Does it affect me?

Home › Texas › El Paso

Hurricane Trudy and El Paso: will it affect me?

Latest official NHC advisory: Friday, October 16 at 6:00 PM MDT. We check every 10 minutes.

Hurricane Trudy · Category 1

No official watches or warnings

Official alert
No watch or warning for this area
The center would pass
690 miles from El Paso
When (approx.)
Wednesday, Oct 21, 12 PM MDT
Strength at that time
Tropical Depression, winds of 25 mph
Inside the cone
No
Distance now
1185 miles

What to do in El Paso

Potential Tropical Cyclone Simon · Tropical depression

No official watches or warnings

Official alert
No watch or warning for this area
Distance
The center is 745 miles away and moving farther away
Inside the cone
No

What to do in El Paso

No National Weather Service alerts for El Paso right now.

No warnings, watches or advisories are in effect. This page updates itself every 10 minutes.

11117 Sat, 12 PM1118 Sun, 12 PMTTDD21 Wed, 12 PMTrudy689 miEl PasoEl PasoLas CrucesRoswellRoswell57°
Hurricane Trudy and El Paso
Forecast cone: where the center could go Forecast track Track so far Tropical-storm-force winds now 31TDCategory (hurricane 1–5, T storm, D depression) Hurricane warningHurricane watch Tropical storm warningTropical storm watch
Today (SPC, NWS):ThunderstormsFlood warning

Official weather alerts for El Paso

No National Weather Service warnings, watches or advisories for El Paso right now.

Storm Prediction Center · today's severe-storm outlook · issued 1 h ago

El Paso is outside today's thunderstorm and severe-storm areas.

Official SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (NOAA), valid until Sat, Oct 17, 6:00 AM MDT. It shows the chance of severe storms in the area, not a warning for your street. SPC outlook

U.S. Drought Monitor · map of October 13

78% of Texas is in drought, including 15% in extreme or exceptional drought.

Abnormally dry95%
Moderate drought or worse78%
Severe drought or worse48%
Extreme drought or worse15%
Exceptional drought or worse1.1%

Share of the state's area. Updated every Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor (National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA). Drought builds over weeks and months: one rainy day rarely ends it.

Hurricane Trudy forecast, step by step

Date and time (MDT)StrengthMax windDistance to El Paso
Now
Fri, Oct 16, 3:00 PM
Category 185 mph1180 mi
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AMCategory 185 mph1140 mi
Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PMCategory 190 mph1040 mi
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 AMCategory 190 mph920 mi
Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PMCategory 185 mph835 mi
Mon, Oct 19, 12:00 AMTropical storm70 mph780 mi
Mon, Oct 19, 12:00 PMTropical storm50 mph750 mi
Tue, Oct 20, 12:00 PMTropical depression35 mph715 mi
Wed, Oct 21, 12:00 PMTropical depression25 mph690 mi

Hazards on land (NHC)

Full NHC text

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area by late Saturday or Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions spreading across the area on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area by late tonight or early Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by late Saturday, with tropical storm conditions beginning on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Sunday.

RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 15 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Official watches and warnings

Weather in El Paso now

National Hurricane Center analysis · 4 hours ago

The latest NHC analysis shows no tropical waves, convergence zone or fronts near El Paso.

Full NHC discussion text

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO: Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and the Remnants of Simon, as well as the Gale Warning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Outside of the areas described in the Special Features section, fresh N winds have begun along the coast over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 2-5 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 15.5N 103.1W Sat morning, 16.9N 104.1W Sat afternoon, 18.5N 105.1W Sun morning approaching Cabo Corrientes, 19.7N 105.9W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.5N 106.6W Mon morning, and 20.9N 107.1W Mon afternoon. Trudy will weaken to a tropical depression over 21.5N 108.1W Tue afternoon over the entrance to the Gulf of California. In addition to Trudy, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event has started this afternoon. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-force northerlies Sat morning and likely persist through Tue, before gradually diminishing on Wed. Finally looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. Formation chance is near zero through 48 hours, and medium through 7 days.

Source: Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) · (Pacific)

Rain forecast for El Paso · next days

Tomorrow0 inLittle or none46° / 66°F
Sunday0 inLittle or none50° / 72°F
Monday0 inLittle or none57° / 79°F

Automatic forecast from a computer model (MET Norway, data CC BY 4.0). Not an official alert: for watches and warnings, follow National Weather Service.

What do the inches mean?

As a rough guide: under a quarter inch in a day is light rain; 1 to 2 inches is a heavy downpour; more than 2 inches in a day is very heavy rain that can flood low-lying areas and roads.

Several rainy days in a row saturate the ground: even a modest storm can then cause flash flooding and rising rivers.

What is normal in October in El Paso

changing season Santa Ana winds and peak wildfire risk in Southern California; a late eastern Pacific storm can still send moisture north.

We are in the eastern Pacific hurricane season (May 15 to November 30).

El Niño is under way, and NOAA expects it to be strong (NOAA, October 8, 2026).

In California and the Southwest it tends to bring a wetter winter, with more flooding and mudslide risk. El Niño usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes (but not none: one landfall is enough).

These are general tendencies: every year is different, and your local forecast comes first.

Typical climate per NOAA and regional weather services. It describes the season, not the forecast for a given day.

Official sources for Texas

Emergency: 911

Be prepared