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Tropical Storm Vance: track, forecast and who it affects

Latest official NHC advisory: Wednesday, October 21 at 4:00 PM CDT. We check every 10 minutes.

Official watches and warnings

No coastal watches or warnings are in effect for this storm.

DDepressionTStorm1Cat. 12Cat. 23Cat. 34Cat. 45Cat. 5
Maximum sustained winds
40 mph
Tropical-storm-force winds
up to 70 miles from the center
Movement
west at 7 mph
Minimum pressure
1003 mb
Location
520 miles south of Acapulco Mexico; 730 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo Mexico
TTT22 Thu, 1 PM1223 Fri, 1 PM3324 Sat, 1 PM2226 Mon, 1 PMVance
Forecast track of Tropical Storm Vance (NHC)
Forecast cone: where the center could go Forecast track Track so far Tropical-storm-force winds now 31TDCategory (hurricane 1–5, T storm, D depression) Hurricane warningHurricane watch Tropical storm warningTropical storm watch

Hazards on land (NHC)

Full NHC text

SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

States, islands and cities

AreaOfficial statusCity closest to the forecast track
🇺🇸 TexasNo official watches or warningsMcAllen: 840 mi, 26 Mon, 1 PM
🇧🇿 BelizeNo official watches or warningsPunta Gorda: 865 mi, now

How close would Vance come to Arizona, California and the Southwest?

CityOfficial statusClosest forecast point of the centerWhen
Yuma, ArizonaNo official watches or warnings1,290 mi26 Mon, 11 AM
Phoenix, ArizonaNo official watches or warnings1,285 mi26 Mon, 11 AM
Tucson, ArizonaNo official watches or warnings1,185 mi26 Mon, 11 AM
San Diego, CaliforniaNo official watches or warnings1,360 mi26 Mon, 11 AM
El Centro, CaliforniaNo official watches or warnings1,320 mi26 Mon, 11 AM
Palm Springs, CaliforniaNo official watches or warnings1,410 mi26 Mon, 11 AM
Los Angeles, CaliforniaNo official watches or warnings1,465 mi26 Mon, 11 AM
Las Vegas, NevadaNo official watches or warnings1,515 mi26 Mon, 11 AM
Las Cruces, New MexicoNo official watches or warnings1,145 mi26 Mon, 12 PM
Albuquerque, New MexicoNo official watches or warnings1,335 mi26 Mon, 12 PM
El Paso, TexasNo official watches or warnings1,105 mi26 Mon, 12 PM

Measured on the NHC forecast track of the storm's center (up to 5 days). Eastern Pacific storms usually weaken over cooler water before reaching the US, but their moisture can still bring heavy rain and flash flooding to the Southwest days later: watch for Flash Flood Watches from your National Weather Service office.

NHC forecast

Date and time (CDT)StrengthMax wind
Now
Wed, Oct 21, 1:00 PM		Tropical storm40 mph
Thu, Oct 22, 1:00 AMTropical storm50 mph
Thu, Oct 22, 1:00 PMTropical storm70 mph
Fri, Oct 23, 1:00 AMCategory 190 mph
Fri, Oct 23, 1:00 PMCategory 2110 mph
Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 AMCategory 3120 mph
Sat, Oct 24, 1:00 PMCategory 3115 mph
Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PMCategory 2105 mph
Mon, Oct 26, 1:00 PMCategory 2100 mph

Source: NHC public advisory 002 · forecast discussion · official graphics. Times in CDT.

Be prepared

Emergency kitWhat to have ready at home and in a go-bag. Hurricane preparednessBefore, during and after. How to read the forecastCone, watch, warning and categories.