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Tropical Storm Simon and San Diego: will it affect me?
Latest official NHC advisory: Thursday, October 15 at 8:00 PM PDT. We check every 10 minutes.
Tropical Storm Simon · Tropical storm
No official watches or warnings
- Official alert
- No watch or warning for this area
- The center would pass
- 580 miles from San Diego
- When (approx.)
- Saturday, Oct 17, 11 PM PDT
- Strength at that time
- Tropical Depression, winds of 25 mph
- Inside the cone
- No
- Distance now
- 1060 miles
What to do in San Diego
- There are no official watches or warnings for your area from this storm.
- Rain and surf can still reach far from the storm: follow your local National Weather Service office.
Tropical Storm Simon forecast, step by step
| Date and time (PDT) | Strength | Max wind | Distance to San Diego |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now Thu, Oct 15, 11:00 AM | Tropical storm | 50 mph | 1065 mi |
| Thu, Oct 15, 11:00 PM | Tropical storm | 45 mph | 1020 mi |
| Fri, Oct 16, 11:00 AM | Tropical storm | 40 mph | 925 mi |
| Fri, Oct 16, 11:00 PM | Tropical depression | 35 mph | 800 mi |
| Sat, Oct 17, 11:00 AM | Tropical depression | 30 mph | 695 mi |
| Sat, Oct 17, 11:00 PM | Tropical depression | 25 mph | 580 mi |
Hazards on land (NHC)
- Rain: 1 to 2 inches across portions of the state of Baja California Sur. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in hilly terrain.
- Surf: the NHC warns of life-threatening surf and rip currents. Stay out of the water.
Full NHC text
RAINFALL: Through early Saturday, Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the state of Baja California Sur.
SURF: Swells generated by Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Official watches and warnings
No coastal watches or warnings are in effect for this storm.
Weather in San Diego now
National Hurricane Center analysis · 3 hours ago
The latest NHC analysis shows no tropical waves, convergence zone or fronts near San Diego.
Full NHC discussion text
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO: Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon and Hurricane Trudy.
Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, strong N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are ongoing in the northern and central Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present offshore Baja California. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon is near 19.3N 108.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 1 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Simon will move to 19.8N 108.7W Fri morning, 20.8N 110.0W Fri afternoon, then weaken to a tropical depression near 22.0N 111.9W Sat morning. Simon will become a remnant low near 23.1N 113.6W Sat afternoon, move west of Baja California Sur Sun morning, then dissipate Sun afternoon. Hurricane Trudy is near 13.7N 101.7W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Trudy will move to 14.3N 101.9W Fri morning, and 15.2N 102.2W Fri afternoon. Hurricane Trudy will reach 16.3N 102.9W Sat morning, 17.5N 103.9W Sat afternoon, 18.8N 104.9W Sun morning, and 19.8N 105.8W Sun afternoon. Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm over west of Cabo Corrientes Mon afternoon. Gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may reach gale force this weekend has high pressure builds southward through Mexico in the wake of a cold front.
Rain forecast for San Diego · next days
Automatic forecast from a computer model (MET Norway, data CC BY 4.0). Not an official alert: for watches and warnings, follow National Weather Service.
What do the inches mean?
As a rough guide: under a quarter inch in a day is light rain; 1 to 2 inches is a heavy downpour; more than 2 inches in a day is very heavy rain that can flood low-lying areas and roads.
Several rainy days in a row saturate the ground: even a modest storm can then cause flash flooding and rising rivers.
What is normal in October in San Diego
changing season Santa Ana winds and peak wildfire risk in Southern California; a late eastern Pacific storm can still send moisture north.
We are in the eastern Pacific hurricane season (May 15 to November 30).
El Niño is under way, and NOAA expects it to be strong (NOAA, October 8, 2026).
In California and the Southwest it tends to bring a wetter winter, with more flooding and mudslide risk. El Niño usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes (but not none: one landfall is enough).
These are general tendencies: every year is different, and your local forecast comes first.
Typical climate per NOAA and regional weather services. It describes the season, not the forecast for a given day.
Official sources for California
Emergency: 911