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Is a hurricane or tropical storm near Arlington?
Latest official NHC advisory: Friday, October 16 at 8:00 PM EDT. We check every 10 minutes.
No National Weather Service alerts for Arlington right now.
No warnings, watches or advisories are in effect. This page updates itself every 10 minutes.
No active tropical cyclones are near Arlington.
Active storms stay more than 930 miles away. This page updates itself every 10 minutes.
Official weather alerts for Arlington
No National Weather Service warnings, watches or advisories for Arlington right now.
Storm Prediction Center · today's severe-storm outlook · issued 1 h ago
General thunderstorms
Thunderstorms are possible but not expected to be severe.
Official SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (NOAA), valid until Sat, Oct 17, 8:00 AM EDT. It shows the chance of severe storms in the area, not a warning for your street. SPC outlook
U.S. Drought Monitor · map of October 13
23% of Virginia is in drought, including 2.3% in extreme or exceptional drought.
Share of the state's area. Updated every Thursday by the U.S. Drought Monitor (National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA). Drought builds over weeks and months: one rainy day rarely ends it.
Weather in Arlington now
National Hurricane Center analysis · 4 hours ago
- Cold front: the NHC mentions a front over the Atlantic.A cold front is the leading edge of colder, drier air: it brings a line of showers or storms, a wind shift and cooler temperatures.
Full NHC discussion text
ATLANTIC OCEAN: A cold front extends from 31N45W to 28N50W, and then is stationary to 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SW winds, 7-9 ft combined seas in NW swell, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the front east of 51W. To the south, a surface trough is analyzed along 53W from 12N to 19N, with an upper level low nearby supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along 50W from 14N to 19N. To the northeast, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N37W to 20N39W with a 1011 mb low along the trough near 23N38W. These features are also driving fresh to strong SE winds E of the trough to about 30W and N of 20N. Diffluence aloft and east of this trough supports numerous showers and thunderstorms from 17N to 27N between 25W and 35W. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident across the basin.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure off the Carolinas will shift eastward ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N71W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through early next week. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue.
Source: Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) · (Pacific)
Rain forecast for Arlington · next days
Automatic forecast from a computer model (MET Norway, data CC BY 4.0). Not an official alert: for watches and warnings, follow National Weather Service.
What do the inches mean?
As a rough guide: under a quarter inch in a day is light rain; 1 to 2 inches is a heavy downpour; more than 2 inches in a day is very heavy rain that can flood low-lying areas and roads.
Several rainy days in a row saturate the ground: even a modest storm can then cause flash flooding and rising rivers.
What is normal in October in Arlington
wet season Main hurricane threat for the Mid-Atlantic and New England, peaking in September. Storms often arrive fast and bring flooding rain inland.
We are in the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30).
El Niño is under way, and NOAA expects it to be strong (NOAA, October 8, 2026).
In the Northeast it tends to bring a milder winter, though coastal nor'easters can be stronger. El Niño usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes (but not none: one landfall is enough).
These are general tendencies: every year is different, and your local forecast comes first.
Typical climate per NOAA and regional weather services. It describes the season, not the forecast for a given day.
Official sources for Virginia
Emergency: 911