Hurricane Trudy and San Ignacio: will it affect me?
Latest official NHC advisory: Thursday, October 15 at 9:00 PM CST. We check every 10 minutes.
Hurricane Trudy · Category 2
No official watches or warnings
- Official alert
- No watch or warning for this area
- Distance
- The center is 870 miles away and moving farther away
- Inside the cone
- No
What to do in San Ignacio
- There are no official watches or warnings for your area from this storm.
- Rain and surf can still reach far from the storm: follow your local National Weather Service office.
Hurricane Trudy forecast, step by step
| Date and time (CST) | Strength | Max wind | Distance to San Ignacio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Now Thu, Oct 15, 3:00 PM | Category 1 | 90 mph | 870 mi |
| Fri, Oct 16, 12:00 AM | Category 2 | 110 mph | 870 mi |
| Fri, Oct 16, 12:00 PM | Category 4 | 130 mph | 880 mi |
| Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 AM | Category 4 | 145 mph | 915 mi |
| Sat, Oct 17, 12:00 PM | Category 4 | 140 mph | 980 mi |
| Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 AM | Category 3 | 120 mph | 1050 mi |
| Sun, Oct 18, 12:00 PM | Category 2 | 105 mph | 1120 mi |
| Mon, Oct 19, 12:00 PM | Tropical storm | 65 mph | 1235 mi |
| Tue, Oct 20, 12:00 PM | Tropical storm | 60 mph | 1300 mi |
Hazards on land (NHC)
- Rain: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches across Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in hilly terrain.
- Rain: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals up to 6 inches across Guerrero. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible, especially in hilly terrain.
- Storm surge: the NHC warns of coastal flooding from rising water, with large and destructive waves near the coast.
- Surf: the NHC warns of life-threatening surf and rip currents. Stay out of the water.
Full NHC text
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area by early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread into the hurricane watch area on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through the weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Official watches and warnings
- Hurricane Watch
- The coast of Mexico north of Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes
Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area; issued about 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected.
- Tropical Storm Warning
- The coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo southward to Zihuatanejo
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area within 36 hours.
Weather in San Ignacio now
National Hurricane Center analysis · 3 hours ago
The latest NHC analysis shows no tropical waves, convergence zone or fronts near San Ignacio.
Full NHC discussion text
CARIBBEAN SEA: A mid- and upper-level low over the NW Caribbean is supporting scattered moderate convection N of 17N and W of 80W. Otherwise, the seasonal pressure gradient is leading to moderate to fresh trades through the basin, with some strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate, highest in the south-central basin.
For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Fri, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the upcoming weekend. Rough seas are expected offshore Colombia with the strongest winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight and Fri. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity.
Rain forecast for San Ignacio · next days
Automatic forecast from a computer model (MET Norway, data CC BY 4.0). Not an official alert: for watches and warnings, follow National Meteorological Service of Belize.
What do the inches mean?
As a rough guide: under a quarter inch in a day is light rain; 1 to 2 inches is a heavy downpour; more than 2 inches in a day is very heavy rain that can flood low-lying areas and roads.
Several rainy days in a row saturate the ground: even a modest storm can then cause flash flooding and rising rivers.
What is normal in October in San Ignacio
wet season Wettest months and the peak of hurricane season.
We are in the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1 to November 30).
El Niño is under way, and NOAA expects it to be strong (NOAA, October 8, 2026).
In Belize it tends to bring drier conditions, with drought risk. El Niño usually means fewer Atlantic hurricanes (but not none: one landfall is enough).
These are general tendencies: every year is different, and your local forecast comes first.
Typical climate per NOAA and regional weather services. It describes the season, not the forecast for a given day.